Saudi Arabia
Saudi Arabia
2,15 mill. km2, 33,7 mill. Inhab.(2018)
Capital: Riyadh
Saudi Riyal
Last Update: April 2021
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Saudi Arabia is an absolute monarchy. King Salman has delegated significant responsibility to his son, Mohammed bin Salman (known as MbS), since his accession to the throne in January 2015, culminating in the latter’s appointment crown prince in 2017. Thus, Crown Prince MbS has centralized political control. The detention of at least three senior family members on 6 March was almost certainly done at his command. As well as the king's brother and nephew, those detained included a serving interior minister and serving head of a military intelligence branch. MbS's motives likely were one or a combination of the following: to consolidate power ahead of his father's passing, to prevent a coup, or, least likely, merely to keep his opponents off-balance. It is highly unlikely that any members of the family will now be willing to question his succession.
Two large-scale, countervailing forces are currently dominating the Saudi economic and political outlooks for 2020: the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and a prolonged period of depressed oil prices. The negative impact of the COVID-19 outbreak on Saudi Arabia's economy is likely to be high and push the economy into a recession in 2020. The pandemic implies cutbacks to both domestic and external demand which, combined with the country's dependence on oil exports, might impact the Saudi economy even further. The IMF has determined that Saudi GDP has been contracted by -4,1% in 2020, and it is projected to growth by 2,9% growth in 2021.
The government has imposed measures to contain the spread of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). These include the suspension of all international flights since 15 March and domestic flights since 21 March; the closure of schools and certain non-essential commercial facilities; daily curfews and area lockdowns; and remote working requirements for public and private sector employees. The Saudi authorities have progressively lifted some of the COVID-19 restrictions. On 21 June, they lifted the nationwide curfew and most economic activity has been allowed to resume at reduced capacity. However, travel restrictions remain in place for commercial flights in and out of the country, with the exception of a special flight service by the local carrier between Jeddah (Medina province) and London (UK). Although enduring restrictions continue to cause significant operational disruption for foreign businesses, the government will continue to seek to further ease movement restrictions, as a growing proportion of the population is tested over the coming months and the mandatory use of masks in public places is generalized (SaudiCDC). Daily infections are expected to growth and reach a relative peak in June 2021 and then decrease in the rest of the summer (IHME)
The ambitious economic reform program launched by MbS, Saudi Vision 2030, aims to reduce the government’s and the economy’s dependence on oil, provide employment opportunities for young Saudis, and improve the quality of life in the kingdom. Initiatives range from the privatization of many government entities (including the state-owned oil company, Saudi Aramco) to the provision of new entertainment options. MbS’s economic reform program aims to enhance government efficiency and transparency, encourage growth in the private sector, and provide an attractive environment for foreign investors. Although progress toward these objectives is probable, it will be slow and characterised by considerable uncertainty. Thus, companies currently face a business environment in which political and business interests overlap, and the regulatory environment is opaque and challenging.
There is a high risk of Iranian attacks on Saudi energy assets following the US killing of Iran's Qods Force General Qassem Soleimani in Baghdad on 3 January. Without a definite promise of US support, it is very unlikely that Saudi Arabia's leadership would commit to military escalation or retaliation. Both of Bin Salman’s flagship foreign policy interventions – the boycott of Qatar and the war against Houthi militia in Yemen – have been costly and open-ended, and are weakening close regional co-operation with the United Arab Emirates.
The kingdom’s medium political risk rating reflects the structural challenges the country is grappling with, as well as the rapid transition in the role and effectiveness of the government envisioned by the economic reform program spearheaded by Crown Prince MbS. While the monarchy retains considerable legitimacy among swathes of the population and there is no organized opposition, the government is attempting to navigate a large demographic transition (around two-thirds of the population is under 30), while simultaneously attempting to reduce its dependence on oil revenues. In addition to the challenge of finding jobs for new members of the workforce, the government is seeking to balance the demands of an increasingly connected and worldly youth for social reform with the kingdom’s conservative heritage.
The cabinet is staffed by largely technocratic ministers with a pro-business outlook. However, the kingdom faces an economic legacy in which the state – due to the enormous resources provided by oil revenues – has dominated the economy. The state has been the main employer of Saudi nationals, and it has evolved into a bloated and inefficient bureaucracy. The government is keen to attract foreign investment but lacks the administrative capacity to push through its reforms, and must ensure that the benefits of economic growth are channeled to Saudi citizens (through employment) and local companies.
Saudi Arabia is considered an Authoritarian Regime in the 2019 Democracy Index, developed by The Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU), where the country ranks 159 out of 167 countries scored.
The country ranks 36 at the 2019 Human Development Index developed by the United Nations Development Programme.
The government’s measures to prevent the spread of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) are creating significant operational challenges. The government has restricted travel to 14 countries, including to neighbouring Bahrain and the UAE, where many businesses operating in the kingdom are based. Other measures include shop, restaurant, and shopping mall closures.
As part of the Saudi Vision 2030's reforms, the government introduced the concept of Saudization, which aims to reduce the number of unemployed Saudi nationals. Saudization is officially known as the Saudi Nationalisation Scheme or Nitaqat, a policy implemented by the Ministry of Labour, whereby Saudi companies are required to hire Saudi Nationals on a quota basis. The new rules laid down in the governmental strategy have given companies fresh challenges to tackle, with organisations finding themselves barred from hiring more expatriates but unable to find the required local talent.
Foreign investors are likely to face corruption-related challenges and lack of transparency, but the Vision 2030 plan has involved significant improvement in online registration for business. Business for foreign companies is usually facilitated with a necessary local partner. Reforms for online registration for business licenses were implemented in 2019 and significantly improved trade commerce. Issues like market entry, navigating bureaucratic procedures, and compliance with government regulations, are expedited if a partnership is struck with a senior royal or members of a small group of powerful clans. Such associations reduce operational delays, particularly in gaining customs.
All flights to and from Qatar have been suspended since June 2017 until further notice, and the Saudi-Qatari land border is closed. Saudi Arabia (along with Egypt, Bahrain, and the United Arab Emirates) has also severed diplomatic ties with Qatar due to accusations that the country was funding terrorist organizations in the region.
The UK government has banned passengers flying directly from Saudi Arabia to the United Kingdom from transporting any electronic device larger than a standard-sized smartphone (16 cm x 9.3 cm x 1.5 cm / 6.3 in x 3.5 in x 0.6 in) in carry-on luggage. This includes laptops, tablets, e-readers, cameras, DVD players, and video games, which will have to be stowed in checked luggage for the duration of the flight. A similar ban previously instated for flights to the United States was lifted in July 2017.
Saudi Arabia's infrastructure is good. Telecommunications are highly developed, and the government is working to enhance physical infrastructure, particularly by expanding national and urban rail networks and the country’s airports.
Foreigners should be aware that travel by car within Saudi Arabia can be dangerous. Reckless driving causes a high number of road accidents and hundreds of deaths each year. Public transportation systems are being developed in the country but are not yet operational. However, buses connect to major cities. By law, taxis must be booked in advance, even at the airport. Most taxi drivers do not speak English. Women are not permitted to ride in a taxi alone or with someone from the opposite sex other than her family or husband. However, authorities are usually accommodating foreigners. The railway network consists of one line linking Riyadh and Dammam. Five trips, each taking four to five hours each, are available daily. Women traveling on their own can only do so in first class.
Overall, Saudi Arabia ranks 62 out of 190 countries scored at the 2020 Doing Business Index by the World Bank and 52 out of 198 at the 2020 Corruption Perception Index by the Transparency International Organization.
Saudi Arabia has faced persistent challenges in restricting human trafficking, drug smuggling and, to a lesser extent, arms smuggling; particularly due to its long, porous borders and corruption at border entry points. Violent street crime in cities is unlikely. The main drug smuggling issues stem from growing domestic consumption of synthetic amphetamines and hashish smuggled from Syria, Lebanon, Yemen, and Egypt. The Saudis are investing heavily in border forces and monitoring equipment, but cross-border tribal networks complicate the implementation of truly effective measures. Saudi officials estimate that the seized amounts represent only about 10% of the total amount entering the kingdom.
A low-level insurgency in Eastern province's Qatif region has been contained by the Saudi security forces and is unlikely to promote broadening civil unrest among the Shia minority. In 2020, if public spending restrictions constrain the monarchy's ability to distribute patronage, and the government fails to deliver on promises to improve services and address housing shortages, larger and more frequent protests, including in universities, would become more likely in Saudi cities.
There is a high risk of interstate conflict in the Gulf in 2020, driven by the risk of confrontation between Iran and the US in this area. In the event of a sudden escalation involving US military assets, Saudi Arabia's leadership will likely seek to negotiate an end to any potential conflict. Additionally, Iran's reneging on its Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action commitments raises the potential for a US strike on Iran. Iranian awareness of the qualitative superiority of the US deterrent maritime presence in the Gulf mitigates the risk of deliberate escalation by Iran leading to interstate war.
The Islamic State's capabilities in Saudi Arabia have failed to improve since mid-2016. Any jihadist groups in Saudi Arabia would likely aim to exacerbate social divisions and exploit the crown prince's social reforms, test security measures, demoralize security forces, and demonstrate the Saudi state's inability to guarantee security. In addition to attacks on security forces and Shia targets, the risk of attacks on princes, pro-government clerics, government officials, and religious sites is elevated, as is the risk of one-off attacks involving shooters or suicide bombers on venues considered "un-Islamic".
Overall, Saudi Arabia ranks 128 out of 163 within the 2020 Global Peace Index by the Institute for Economics and Peace.
Saudi Arabia is not currently among the most cyber-attacked countries in the world according to Kaspersky cyber threat map.
Yellow fever: Proof of vaccination against yellow fever is required if traveling from a country with risk of yellow fever (YFV) transmission and over one year of age and for travelers who have been in transit >12 hours in an airport located in a country with risk of YFV transmission.
Saudi Arabia ranks 47 out of 195 within the 2019 Global Health Security Index, a project of the Nuclear Threat Initiative (NTI) and the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security (JHU), developed with The Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU).
Saudi Arabia's climate is arid all year long. Summers are very hot and dry, winters mild along the coasts and cooler inland. A rainy season (albeit with low levels of rainfall) lasts from October to April along the western coastal plains. In the center of the country (Nedj) nights are cool and days are scorching. The north and the south of the country is desert.
Foreign visitors should be aware that Saudi Arabia's weather can reach extremes during certain seasons. Temperatures sometimes climb to 50°C (122°F) or higher and power outages often occur during heat waves, particularly in the west. Flooding is common in the northern and western parts of the country, particularly between November and March.
Sand and dust storms often occur in the country and can disrupt road and air traffic.
The Ministry of Health is preparing and equipping a National Crisis and Disaster Management Center to deal with national emergencies.







