Algeria is a presidential republic in which the head of state, who is elected for a five-year term, appoints the prime minister and cabinet. However, the country's formal institutions do not reflect the realities of power, as decision-making at the national level is highly informal. Algeria is likely to maintain broad political stability despite persistent civil unrest and economic hardship. President Abdelmadjid Tebboune will continue to consolidate his power and the army will remain the key actor in determining how the country is governed. 

Constitutional reform has been one of the key demands of the protest movement in the country. The Algerian presidency announced on 24 August that a constitutional referendum would take place on 1 November. The government declared on 2 November that the vote had passed off by a two-thirds majority. However, although 67% of voters approved the changes to the constitution, only 23.7% of eligible voters turned out to vote.

Algeria is facing a dual crisis due to a drop in oil prices since March 2020 and the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, which has fuelled a slowdown in economic activity. The World Bank expects that oil prices of USD 30 per barrel would reduce Algeria’s tax revenues by 21.2% and increase the fiscal and trade deficits. Thus, the negative impact of the COVID-19 outbreak on Algeria's economy is likely to be high. The IMF expects real GDP to contract by 5.5% in 2020, returning to a 3.2% growth in 2021. 

Algeria is among the countries that that has been hardest-hit by coronavirus in Africa. In a bid to contain the virus, the government since mid-March gradually imposed stringent measures to limit the movement of people and public gatherings. These restrictions included the suspension of all inbound and outbound flights and all public transport; a total lockdown of Blida province; and a nationwide curfew. The measures also include the temporary closure of schools, cafes, restaurants, schools and universities, as well as the temporary closure of Algerian airspace and all national land and maritime borders. The government on 17 March temporarily banned demonstrations and public gatherings, prompting the anti-government protest movement to suspend its bi-weekly protests. On 4 June a two-phased relaxation of COVID-19 restrictions was announced, starting with the reopening of non-essential businesses on 7 June. The second phase began on 14 June, with the lifting of lockdown measures in 19 provinces and the easing of restrictive measures in the other 29 provinces.  The restrictions nonetheless will continue to cause significant business disruption over the coming weeks and fuel an economic downturn over the coming year. Moreover, after a steep increase in daily infections in November, the number of cases is expected to decrease and stabilize in 2021 (IHME). 

President Abdelmadjid Tebboune has announced a series of reforms aimed at responding to popular demands for political change and restoring the fragile popularity of his government, which was appointed in the context of nationwide anti-government protests. Protesters called off protests in March for the first time in a year due to the government-imposed measure to prevent the spread of the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) virus. The government will most likely focus on amending the constitution and continue cross-sector anti-corruption investigations. A supplementary finance bill was adopted on 3 June aimed at easing business regulation and attracting foreign investment, critical to Algeria’s economic recovery given the prolonged drop in global energy prices and, to a lesser extent, the COVID-19 pandemic. Despite the government's intended reforms, the continued detention of protesters is likely to reinvigorate protests despite confinement measures. 

Algeria's security forces' operations have effectively contained the domestic jihadist threat, reducing the likelihood of a successful attack in a major city. The militant threat posed by al-Qaida in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM) and, to a lesser extent, Islamic State (IS) will continue to drive MEDIUM security risk nationwide. On the other hand, the risk is more worrisome along the country’s eastern and southern borders, as the risk of transnational jihadist penetration from Libya, Mali, and Tunisia remains high. Heightened security measures and continued counterterrorism operations will limit the potential for large-scale or coordinated militant attacks.