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Outlook

The Tunisian government is under pressure to effectively address persistent socio-economic grievances, particularly the prominent levels of youth unemployment since the revolution in 2011. Tunisia was already suffering from deep macroeconomic imbalances before the COVID-19 outbreak, but the situation has worsened throughout the pandemic. Tunisia’s annual GDP has contracted by 8,8% in 2020, although the IMF (International Monetary Fund) expects a growth of 3,8% in 2021. The high unemployment rate (15.5%), the strong inflation (7.4%) and the austerity measures are triggering violent protests across the country. Labour unrest in key public and private sectors such as the phosphate industry and the transport sector are likely over the coming months, particularly in the inner poorer provinces and in the south of the country.

The main terrorist threats stem from the Islamic State sympathizers and militants attempting to infiltrate the country from Libya, and from Al-Qaeda's affiliate Katibat Uqba Ibn Nafaa. The return of Tunisian jihadists from Libya increases the risk of terrorist attacks targeting security and government assets, particularly in the border and mountainous areas. However, heightened security measures and continued counterterrorism operations will limit these groups’ capacity to conduct coordinated large-scale attacks like those in 2015-16.

Political

Tunisia is a representative democracy. The president is elected for a maximum of two five-year terms. The president appoints the prime minister, who chairs the government. The current constitution was approved in 2014. The 2014 and 2019 parliamentary and presidential elections were peaceful and consolidated the democratic system. Tunisia's political landscape in the 14-18 period was dominated by the dichotomy between the moderate Islamist Ennahda party and the secularist Nidaa Tounes party. However, the 2019 legislative and presidential elections led to the decline of both traditional parties and gave rise to anti-system parties and actors, which reveals an increasing public frustration and a growing disillusionment of society with the political establishment.

On July 25, 2021, President Kais Saied suspended parliament and MP´s immunity and assumed executive power using the controversial Article 80 of the constitution, which grants the president extraordinary powers in case of imminent threat to the nation. This intervention comes in the absence of a constitutional court, whose formation is being hampered by the political polarization in the country and by fundamental disagreements over how the court should be structured.

On 11th October the president approved a new government, after appointing Najla Bouden as prime minister and the first woman to hold the post in the country's history on 29th September.

The military is not involved in politics and is unlikely to significantly influence the political process, although it sided with President Kais Saied in his July 25, 2021, decision to suspend parliament and remove the prime minister.

Tunisia is considered a Flawed Democracy in the 2020 Democracy Index,  developed by The Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU), where the country ranks 53 out of 167 countries scored. It ranks 95 at the 2020 Human Development Index developed by the United Nations Development Programme. And 73 out of 180 in the 2021 Freedom Press Index, developed by Reporters without borders.  

Operative

Strikes, protests and sit-ins are common and pose significant operational risk to all economic and social sectors (education, health, transport, mining, textile production...) particularly in the south

Bureaucratic inefficiency is an obstacle to foreign investment, especially in projects involving public works. The cumbersome decision-making process involving parliament, government and trade unions complicates the regulatory environment. Corruption persists both at the highest and lower levels of the state bureaucracy and security forces.

The government is trying to promote foreign investment and an open business environment, particularly in export-oriented industries. However, significant obstacles and opposition to reforms remain. Hiring and firing employees can prove difficult and expensive. Regulations regarding foreign workers are restrictive and arbitrarily enforced.

>Road safety across the country poses significant risks to foreigners due to erratic driving habits. Roads are in good condition across the country, although they can deteriorate quickly after periods of heavy rainfall. Roads in rural areas are poorly maintained. Rail transport is reasonably safe, although safety standards tend to be lower than those in Western countries.

Tunisia ranks 78 out of 190 countries scored at the  2020 Doing Business Index by the World Bank and 69 out of 198 at the 2020 Corruption Perception Index by the Transparency International Organization.

Security

The security environment in Tunisia is stable, though there is high-security risk in mountainous and border areas due to the terrorist threat. Unrest frequently sparks riots and clashes between protesters and the security forces particularly in the central and southern provinces and specifically in the governorates of Ben Gardane, Gafsa, Kasserine, Kef, Medenine, Sidi Bouzid and Tataouine.These clashes can generate collateral damages to the foreign companies. The risk of violent mass protests is lower in major urban centres, including Tunisia, where demonstrations tend to be more peaceful.

Although the activities of terrorist groups have declined since the Islamic State attacks in 2015 and 2016, Tunisia remains vulnerable to terrorism. This threat is particularly serious near the borders with Libya and Algeria, and more frequently in the Tataouni governorate. Islamist militants in mountainous areas have been carrying out low-level attacks against security and army forces, without affecting commercial operations in the area. Return of Tunisian jihadists from Libya will keep the risk of terrorist attacks high.

The state of emergency has been in place since the attack on the presidential guard in November 2015.

Overall crime rates are low and violent offenses are rare, although theft is a problem. Tourists and business travellers are a particular target for pickpocketing and small-scale swindles, particularly in downtown Tunis. Tunisia is also increasingly being used by smuggling networks as a transit point for immigrants attempting to reach Europe, and drug trafficking is an issue. Violence occasionally erupts between rival gangs that traffic goods and people and between smuggling groups and the security forces.

Tunisia's relations with neighbouring countries are good and interstate war is extremely unlikely. The army has taken a larger role in Tunisia's internal security. This includes policing desert border areas against smugglers and jihadist militants; maintaining security at strategic locations such as ports, airports, and embassies; and preventing disruption and damage during outbreaks of political and labour unrest at energy assets.

Tunisia ranks 92 out of 163 within the 2020 Global Peace Index by the Institute for Economics and Peace.

Cyber

Tunisia is not currently among the most cyber-attacked countries in the world. According to Kaspersky cyber threat map, it is ranked as the 56th most cyber-attacked country.

Health

The government is struggling to contain the spread of COVID-19. Increases in daily COVID-19 infection and death rates, as well as a slow vaccination schedule, especially with the spread of the Delta variant since June 2021, have made Tunisia the country with the highest COVID-19 related per capita mortality rate in Africa.

Tunisia ranks 122 out of 195 within the 2019 Global Health Security Index.

Natural

Some of the most common natural disasters that have affected Tunisia over the years have been floods, landslides, forest fires and earthquakes, the latter particularly in Tunis, Ben Arous, Nabeul, Bizerte, Monastir, El Kef, Jendouba, Sidi Bouzid and Tozeur.