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Australia is a politically stable liberal democracy and has been governed by a centre-right coalition comprising the Liberal Party (LP) and National Party of Australia (Nationals) since 2013. The LP-National coalition in May 2019 won its third term in the federal elections. The LP-National administrations since 2013 have relied heavily on conservative factions within the ruling coalition in the House of Representatives (lower house of parliament) and minor and independent parties in the Senate (upper house) to pass legislation. This has caused significant delays in policymaking. However, despite leadership instability in recent years, with six prime ministerial changes between 2010 and 2018, political risk in Australia remains low. Currently, Prime Minister Scott Morrison is the Head of government, since 2018. Taking into account that Australia is a constitutional monarchy, the Head of the State is Queen Elizabeth II, represented by Governor-General David Hurley since 2019. 

Until 2008, Australia enjoyed 17 years of uninterrupted growth and was one of the fastest-growing economies in the developed world. Much of this growth was fuelled by a boom in resource prices, owing to China’s rapid expansion, favourable terms of trade, and two decades of economic liberalisation. The country enjoys rich mineral resources and geographic proximity to dynamic Asian economies. However, growth since 2008 has decreased, most recently as a result of the pandemic and its economic impact affecting key trading partners, such as China. Business confidence has weakened slightly since the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic, although the overall environment remains positive compared with other OECD countries.  The country in 2020 entered its first recession in nearly 30 years. According to the IMF, its GDP contracted by 4.2%. This is related to the economic dependence of Australia on Chinese demand, as well as the scale and weight of its tourism sector. Prime Minister Scott Morrison’s popularity, badly eroded by his administration’s response to recent bushfires, has now rallied thanks to Australia’s effective response to the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) virus outbreak. The country rapidly developed its own diagnostic tests for COVID-19, and enforced widespread testing and strict lockdown rules, facilitating early control of the outbreak. State authorities began easing some restrictions on domestic travel and “social distancing” in May but possible resurgences in COVID-19 cases continue to pose disruptions for business. Australia´s real GDP is expected to grow by 3.5% in 2021. Although the country displays very low levels of COVID-19 infections, projections forecast a possible, but reduced, increase in this number (IHME).

National security interests – which are often vaguely defined – will play a more central role in policymaking, amid concerns that have been amplified during the pandemic. This has so far resulted in changes to the country’s foreign investment framework and accelerated the federal government’s plans to rectify inconsistent federal/state government foreign policy stances. This is particularly likely to affect Canberra’s relations with Beijing, with some spill-over effects for China-Australia trade and investment.

Moreover, despite the LP-led government’s enthusiasm for sustaining Australia’s coal industry, the 2019-20 bushfire crisis is likely to pressure it to adopt an energy policy that accommodates carbon emissions reduction targets over the next two years. However, regulatory uncertainty is likely to persist in the likely scenario that state and territory governments decide to proceed with implementing substantial elements of sustainable energy policies that are unaligned with a national strategy.

Australia generally faces a low terrorism threat. There are no known terrorist groups active in Australia – the greatest domestic threat increasingly stems from home-grown “lone wolf” Islamist extremists who are inspired/radicalised by international terrorist groups (and in some cases maintain active links with them). More than 200 Australians have also travelled overseas to fight with the Islamic State (IS), particularly to Syria and Iraq. Right-wing extremism is another potential source of terrorism risk, evident in the attack on a New Zealand mosque by an Australian national in March 2019. However, police counter-terrorism capability is robust, and most plots will probably be intercepted.

Australia regularly performs well in corruption perception surveys and has a robust judicial system that is among the best and most transparent in the OECD. There are also well-established arbitration processes. Press freedom is enshrined in the constitution and regularly upheld by the courts. The regulatory system is both efficient and fair, and Australia has a highly skilled and flexible workforce. Health and safety regulations are strictly enforced, with severe consequences for companies that do not adhere to them.

Political

Australia, formed by six states (New South Wales, Queensland, South Australia, Tasmania, Victoria, and Western Australia), is a constitutional monarchy governed by a two-chamber federal parliament – the House of Representatives (lower house), comprising 151 members who represent districts (electorates), and the Senate (upper house), comprising 76 members, 12 from each of the six states and two from each of the three territories (the Australian Capital Territory, the Jervis Bay Territory, and the Northern Territory). The party or parties that win the most lower house seats form the government and nominate the prime minister, who in turn selects the ministers and the cabinet, which form the executive. Laws are made by passing bills through the House of Representatives and the Senate with a simple majority vote. Australian has a two-party preferential voting system and despite challenges in recent years from minor parties, voters still predominantly vote for either the centre-left ALP or the centre-right LP-National coalition in the lower house.

Current Prime Minister Morrison is a liberal in economic policy terms and, similarly to former Turnbull, is an advocate of strong market principles. He will aim to stimulate domestic economic growth through corporate and personal tax cuts. Although Morrison’s poor handling of the 2019-20 bushfire crisis has affected his popularity, he is unlikely to be ousted by another internal leadership battle, due to the December 2018 changes to the LP’s internal voting rules. Under the new rules, a sitting prime minister can only be removed by a two-thirds parliamentary majority (instead of a simple majority).

The ruling LP-National coalition in the May 2019 general elections secured a slim majority in the House of Representatives (lower house of parliament) but not in the Senate (upper house). Although the coalition is in a stronger position than it was in its previous term, a return to the period of legislative ineffectiveness before the 2019 election remains a significant risk, given the propensity for lawmakers to defect and disqualifications due to constitutional provisions concerning citizenship. This legislative inertia and associated political risk will continue to affect businesses awaiting policy decisions.

Australia’s foreign policy has two priorities: remaining an active and valued member of the US-led security alliance, and maintaining regional stability. The country’s key concerns include free trade, economic co-operation with Asia, and terrorism. It has also increasingly looked to expand relations with countries around the Indian Ocean rim (the “Indo-Pacific”). Moreover, regulatory changes in Australia have generally been introduced in phased stages and are rarely implemented abruptly, albeit with the exception of bills focused on national interest and national security risks in recent months.

Additionally, Australia´s foreign relations with China deserve consideration. While the Victorian government worked on the Belt and Road Initiative agreement with China (signed in 2015 and renewed in 2019), federal government aims to rip up such controversial deal, due to escalating tensions between the countries. In fact, the federal government created legislation allowing the Commonwealth to cancel agreements with foreign powers made by states, local governments or universities if the deals are deemed harmful. This situation could spell the end of the Victoria Belt and Road agreement under foreign veto laws, after the state government included it in a list of documents submitted to the Commonwealth under its new foreign veto laws. 

Australia is considered a Full Democracy in the 2020 Democracy Index, developed by The Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU), where the country ranks 9 out of 167 countries scored.

The country ranks 8 at the 2019 Human Development Index developed by the United Nations Development Programme.

Operational

Australia’s operational environment is attractive and welcoming to potential investors. Days lost to industrial action have declined in the past two decades despite a slight increase in strike activity during the past year. Although business confidence has fallen slightly since the beginning of the pandemic, the overall business environment remains stable. It currently presents no serious systemic or institutional risks to domestic or foreign investors, despite increased screening requirements and likely investment restrictions on national security grounds. In fact, Australia is one of the most secure investment environments in the developed world, where business rights are firmly protected by comprehensive statutes at both the federal and state levels. A highly respected and transparent judiciary has a long record of defending business against any government excesses. 

With high pandemic-driven unemployment rates likely persisting over the next two years, labour concerns are likely to play a more pivotal role in the next general election (due by 2022). Moreover, restrictions on foreign labour – both skilled and temporary migrant workers – are likely to increase over the next several years

In May 2018, 100,000 union members protested peacefully in Melbourne to demand a salary increase. Labour strikes over pay and labor conditions in the mining as well as civilian and cargo transportation sectors occur several times per year but are unlikely to cause disruption longer than a few days. Corruption levels remain low despite an increase in public perceptions of corruption in public services and among politicians, fuelled by scandals such as the “sports rorts” affair.

The quality of the medical, hotel, and road infrastructure is high.All forms of infrastructure are generally well developed, but population growth and the increasing needs of the resources and agriculture sectors have highlighted weaknesses. Public transportation systems are well-developed and health conditions are good throughout the country.

Overall, Australia ranks 14 out of 190 countries scored at the 2020 Doing Business Index by the World Bank and 11 out of 198 at the 2020 Corruption Perception Index by the Transparency International Organization.

Security

Foreign business visitors face no major security risks. Areas frequented by foreign business personnel are generally safe, though the usual precautions should be taken against petty crime in major cities. Australians are generally tolerant and it is unusual for business personnel or foreign- and immigrant-owned businesses to be singled out for harassment.

However, Australia is perceived as a legitimate target for Islamist extremist terrorism. There have been at least six terrorist attacks and 16 foiled plots since September 2014.

Crime levels in Australia are comparable to those in developed Western economies. Violent crime has broadly declined during the past decade, although sexual assault rates rose during 2017. However, crime levels in Australia are moderate and police are generally responsive and effective. Robbery and other types of property crime are the most likely to affect businesses and employees. 

The government considers serious and organised crime one of seven key national security risks. Most significant organised crime groups in Australia have international links and interests. Such groups are typically involved in some form of financial crime or money laundering and have some connection with the illicit drugs market. Australia is a hub for drug trafficking. In a single incident in December 2019, authorities seized 1.6 tonnes of methamphetamine worth almost AUD1.2 billion. Australia’s anti-money-laundering regime is comprehensive, with legislative amendments passed in late 2017 extending the legislation to cover digital currency providers.

There has also been an increase in youth crime, particularly in Melbourne (Victoria state), including a rise in gang violence. Rising unemployment, driven by the pandemic, is likely to exacerbate the existing high school drop-out problem. Small protests motivated by social and environmental concerns occur monthly in Australia and usually attract several hundred participants. Larger protests occur several times per year and typically relate to environmental concerns. Although protests occasionally cause disruption to central business districts and local traders, the likelihood of property damage is negligible. 

Australia enjoys relatively stable relations with its regional neighbours – despite the occasional diplomatic tussle – and faces no major international security challenges. Australia’s isolated location and comprehensive border security further minimise the risk of overt hostilities being targeted against the country. Therefore, the risk of interstate conflict affecting Australian territory is low, although Australia’s defense strategy formulated in 2016 underestimated the pace of technological advancements in weaponry and the rapidity of geopolitical changes in the Indo-Pacific region. In particular, the defense strategy is over-reliant on the United States, whose regional military authority is waning amid a greater strategic challenge from China. The government intends to increase defense spending to 2% of GDP by 2021, although a reassessment of defense strategy and military capabilities is highly likely to bring a spending increase. Both major political parties are likely to support this policy.

Domestically based lone-actors pose a moderate terrorist threat in Australia, with attacks likely to be low-capability and aimed at soft targets in Sydney or Melbourne. Attacks would aim to cause civilian casualties and the risk of significant asset damage is low. As well as Islamist or Islamic State-inspired attacks, the March 2019 attacks in Christchurch, New Zealand, which were carried out by an Australian national, raise the risk of copycat attacks in the country. Australia has experienced more severe bomb threats but counter-terrorism capabilities are robust and plots are likely to be disrupted during the planning stages.

Overall, Australia ranks 13 out of 163 within the 2020 Global Peace Index by the Institute for Economics and Peace.

Cyber

Australia ranks as the 34 most cyberattacked country, according to Kaspersky cyber threat map. There has been an increasing trend of cybercrime and fraud in Australia, which has led to a more concerted effort by business and government to bolster cyber security frameworks.

Health

Yellow fever: Although there is no risk of contracting yellow fever in Australia, the government requires proof of vaccination for travelers arriving from countries with a risk of yellow fever transmission. A single dose of YF vaccine is sufficient to confer sustained life-long immunity against the disease.

Australia ranks 4 out of 195 within the 2019 Global Health Security Index, a project of the Nuclear Threat Initiative (NTI) and the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security (JHU), developed with The Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU).

Natural

Due to its vast size, Australia experiences a variety of diverse climates (equatorial, tropical, arid, etc.). Along the eastern coast, the climate is temperate: summers are hot and winters are mild. The area receives rain throughout the year.

In the north and the northeast of the country the climate is tropical (summers are hot and humid, winters mild) and the majority of rainfall comes in the summer.

The interior of the country and portions of the western coast are semi-arid.

Temperatures are generally lower in the south although they never fall below freezing in Melbourne.

Finally, in the southeast (Perth, Adelaide), the climate is Mediterranean, with mild winters and hot and dry summers.

As said, Australia is home to an array of diverse climates and therefore a variety of natural hazards. Between late October and early May, tropical cyclones strike the northern and western coasts of the country, sometimes violently. In addition to storms, the country is also regularly afflicted by forest fires in the summer months (December to February). Furthermore, large-scale floods resulting in extensive material damage are not rare.

It should also be noted that Australia is located in an active seismic zone.

If you plan to visit Australia, stay informed by the Australian Government disaster recovery assistance hotline.