Egypt
Egypt
1,01 mill. km2, 100.38 mill. hab.(2020)
Capital: Cairo
Egyptian pound
Last Update: January 2021
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Egypt has a mixed presidential and parliamentary system of governance. Parliament can, in theory, hold a vote of no confidence in the president. Under the constitution, the president is the supreme commander of the armed forces. Each president is allowed to serve a maximum of two six-year terms, but a recent constitutional amendment will allow Sisi to serve a third term. Egypt is holding parliamentary elections that run from 21 October to 8 December, with final results expected on 14 December.
Political instability and insecurity have undermined the economy since the 2011 uprising, though there has been a slight improvement since late 2016. Egypt’s completion of the three-year IMF loan programme has signalled its ability to manage its economic performance. The loan programme came with a series of targets that the government was required to meet in order to qualify for additional instalments. Egypt in 2017-19 devalued and floated the pound (currency), cut subsidies on fuel and food, raised taxes, introduced a value-added tax and removed capital controls on dollar deposits and transactions. The government has identified several sectors it deems vital for growth over the coming years, including oil and gas and renewable energy. The expedited development of other oilfields and gas fields, and the government’s efforts to streamline bureaucracy in the petroleum ministry, will also help to achieve this goal.
The negative impact of the COVID-19 outbreak on Egypt's economy is likely to be high, with a case fatality rate is 5.5% at the time of writing. The IMF expects real GDP to grow by 3.5% in 2020. In 2021, Egypt's GDP is expected to grow by 2.8% according to the IMF. Moreover, Egypt is forecasted an increasing infection curve, which will continue and reach its peak during the first monts of 2021 (IHME).
Regarding the parliamentary elections held on October and November 2020, pro-Sissi party has won the majority. Parties and individuals will contest 568 seats, and President Abdul Fatah al-Sisi can nominate candidates for 28 additional seats. Pro-Sisi parties have already begun forming coalitions, and are highly likely to win a majority in parliament. The government has significantly cracked down on opposition parties, and although some will run in the campaign, they haeve not win enough support to threaten Sisi’s political position.
There are likely to be significant negative effects on the Egyptian economy due to a prolonged downturn in global trade as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic, with the tourism sector, Suez Canal receipts, and remittances from the Gulf being most vulnerable. Full business shutdowns are unlikely to occur as they would put significant economic pressure on Egypt's informal economy – approximately 63% of the total workforce. Policy priorities for Sisi will include attempting to restore investor confidence in the private sector, particularly manufacturing, banking privatization, and hydrocarbon exploration and production, and minimizing government spending on subsidies. In addition, the amendments subsume the judiciary under the executive and increase the military's formal role within state institutions. Sisi sidelined opponents from the military before the 2018 presidential election, and this has almost certainly discouraged future meaningful opposition figures from emerging from the armed forces. Reshuffling of senior positions within the military and intelligence services reduces the likelihood of a coup being attempted, and even more so of one being successful. Successful attacks against security forces and civilians in North Sinai have decreased, but Egyptian armed forces are still at high risk of attack by militants on the main coastal highway; attacks are unlikely to pose a significant threat to south Sinai. Attacks in the Western Desert are likely to target state representatives and security forces. Egypt is likely to continue to support the Libyan National Army in eastern Libya but is likely to be unwilling to commit significant numbers of ground troops against the Government of National Accord and its backer, Turkey.
Egypt has implemented severe restrictions to limit the spread of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). Measures include a night-time curfew, the closure of shops, and a flight ban. Egypt is unlikely to have the capacity to tackle a full-scale pandemic, should the virus spread rapidly, especially in densely populated urban centers.
Egypt has a mixed presidential and parliamentary system of government. Under the 2014 constitution, which was passed after Abdul Fatah al-Sisi was elected president that year, the head of state has the power to appoint ministers. Parliament technically has the power to hold a vote of no confidence in the president and force early elections, but it is unlikely to use this power, as many of its seats are held by loyal supporters of the president. The constitution has entrenched the military’s power. The defense minister must be a member of the armed forces, and the military’s budget has no civilian oversight. Retaining the support of the generals is therefore vital for the government if it is to remain in office. The legal system is based on French, English and Islamic law (Sharia). The judicial system is overburdened and vulnerable to political influence, court cases are likely to be drawn out.
Egypt is courting inward investment in order to boost its foreign currency reserves and stimulate the economy. The government has hosted investment conferences related to key sectors for economic growth, such as the oil and gas industry. The government will continue to prioritize strengthening its finances by keeping government spending on subsidies low. It will also retain its pro-business stance by easing regulatory requirements to incentivize foreign direct investment. The government will keep a firm grip on politics within the country and continue to suppress the opposition.
The government in recent years has cracked down on political opposition and activism. The arrests of the Muslim Brotherhood’s senior members and supporters fuelled the establishment of militant groups and prompted social unrest in support of the organisation. The government’s efforts to limit political dissent will continue to make it and the security apparatus the targets of militancy and unrest over the coming year.
Egypt is considered an Authoritarian Regime in the 2020 Democracy Index, developed by The Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU), where the country ranks 137 out of 167 countries scored.
The country ranks 116 at the 2019 Human Development Index developed by the United Nations Development Programme.
Political uncertainty has been replaced by the dominant position of military-backed companies within the economy. Military companies are largely tax-exempt and have access to cheap labor through conscription. Ongoing operational risks include high levels of bureaucracy, exacerbated by an overstaffed public sector in which appointments to posts are not based on merit. Risks of payment delays to government contractors and foreign energy firms are likely to increase in the one-year outlook as the economic impact of COVID-19 affects government sources of revenue.
The number of foreign nationals employed by any company in Egypt must not exceed 10% of the workforce, and foreign employees’ wages cannot account for more than 20% of a company’s payroll. However, the rules regarding foreign workers are less stringent in certain sectors, most notably oil and gas. Labour disputes are common, with unions often encouraging their members to strike and hold sit-ins. Labour unrest predominantly occurs outside the premises of the companies in question, and is driven by poor working conditions, low wages or late salary payments.
Egypt’s infrastructure is below international standards. The quality of transport infrastructure varies across the country, though public transport networks in general are overcrowded and underdeveloped. Train accidents are common.
Egypt also suffers from occasional power outages, though this has been less of a problem in recent years. The construction of power plants, the expedited production of gas from offshore reserves and the country’s goal of sourcing 20% of electricity from renewables by the end of 2020 mean outages are likely to become shorter and less frequent over the coming years.
The various measures Egypt has implemented to tackle coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) will continue to undermine business operations over the coming months. Egypt initially implemented a curfew between 19:00hs and 06:00hs, during which time all public and private transport must also cease. Shops, schools, and universities also shut. A flight ban (excluding cargo flights) and the suspension of all state services was also introduced, though all of these restrictions have now been lifted. However, in the event of another wave of infections, these containment measures are likely to be partially or fully reinstated.
Regarding transportation, the road mortality rate is high. According to the World Health Organization (WHO), around 12,000 people die in car accidents in Egypt every year. This is partly due to the poor condition of the roads, poor driving habits, and antiquated vehicles. The overall safety of the country's train network is also unreliable. Train accidents are common.
Overall, Egypt ranks 114 out of 190 countries scored at the 2020 Doing Business Index by the World Bank and 117 out of 198 at the 2020 Corruption Perception Index by the Transparency International Organization.
Civil unrest and militancy pose the most significant security threats to foreign nationals. The security environment deteriorated following the 2011 uprising and continued to decline after the 2013 coup, though it has improved slightly since 2016. The threats are particularly acute in the restive governorate of North Sinai, where an Islamic State (IS) affiliate is waging an insurgency. Threats are also elevated in the Western Desert, where militant groups and criminal organisations can smuggle weapons, people and narcotics across Egypt’s porous border with Libya.
Most militant groups in Egypt target the government and its security apparatus because of the authorities’ crackdown on Islamist and opposition groups, including the formerly ruling Muslim Brotherhood. They have largely lost the ability to organize large anti-government demonstrations. Nevertheless, opposition protests will probably recur occasionally, especially around political events like the anniversary of the 3 July coup and the 14 August Rabaa massacre, but are almost certain to be dispersed by security forces deploying non-lethal riot control measures. Protests by non-Islamist youth, leftists, and the urban working class tend to be small and quickly dispersed by security forces. High levels of protest fatigue and economic struggles appear to have reduced the likelihood of labor activism and protests from non-Islamist segments of the population.
Socio-economic grievances also drive occasional militant attacks, though these issues are more likely to provoke social unrest in the capital Cairo and other major cities. Socio-economic grievances and popular anger over corruption drove widespread protests in major cities on 20 September 2019 and lasting several days, though, they have since been quelled. Unrest and militancy rarely target foreign nationals or businesses, though they do pose incidental threats. Companies are more likely to face operational disruption, rather than security threats, as a result of attacks or protests and the consequent establishment of additional checkpoints or road closures.
Regarding criminality, crime rates rose after the January 2011 uprising due to law enforcement forces leaving the streets, the disarray of the police force, the increased availability of firearms because of political and security turmoil and the smuggling of weapons from Libya, mass prison breaks during the 2011 uprising, and anxiety over the country's future. Crime rates have leveled off from 2014 as police visibility has increased and military control was re-established. The publicly reviled State Security Agency was dissolved in March 2011 because of its reputation for committing human rights abuses. However, it was quickly replaced with the National Security Agency, which retains more than half of the previous agency's staff, and has preserved tactics and practices similar to those of its predecessor. Sensible precautions to guard against opportunistic crime should be taken in urban areas and on some desert roads, including the Cairo-Alexandria highway and west of Cairo. Despite legislation imposing harsher punishment on sexual harassment, women may be subject to unwanted attention or verbal harassment if traveling alone. Reports suggest that sexual assaults and incidents of harassment against women have increased since 2011. The death penalty is the maximum sentence for smuggling illegal drugs, including marijuana and hashish. Fines and imprisonment are common even for small-scale seizures.
The risk of jihadist attacks targeting security and foreign targets is likely to be high in the following year, driven by the Islamic State's attempts to expand its operational capabilities beyond the Sinai. In North Sinai, the army's increased deployment of troops has reduced the frequency of Islamic State attacks since February 2018. South Sinai governorate tourism likely remains an aspirational target. The risk of improvised explosive device (IED) attacks on Christian minorities and security forces is greatest in Greater Cairo, the Nile Delta, and Suez Canal cities.
Egypt is unlikely to engage in war with another sovereign state over the coming year. President Sisi is highly likely to maintain the Mubarak-era position of good relations and counter-terrorism co-operation with Israel, in large part with the objective of containing the Sinai insurgency and increasing economic integration with Israel and accommodating Gulf monarchies; a war with Israel is very unlikely during Sisi's tenure. Egypt will probably continue providing military assistance to the Tobruk-based Libyan government against the Islamic State and the internationally recognized Government of National Accord (GNA) in Tripoli, particularly as Turkey commits to providing significant numbers of ground troops to the GNA. Nonetheless, it is unlikely to increase its involvement in Libya's civil conflict. Egypt's military would be overstretched, and likely qualitatively outmatched if attempted a campaign in Libya while maintaining military operations in Sinai.
Overall, Egypt ranks 130 out of 163 within the 2020 Global Peace Index by the Institute for Economics and Peace.
Egypt is not currently among the most cyber-attacked countries in the world, but it is ranked as the 28th most attacked country according to Kaspersky cyber threat map.
Yellow fever: There is no risk of contracting yellow fever in Egypt. However, the government requires proof of vaccination for travelers arriving from countries with a risk of yellow fever transmission. A single dose of YF vaccine is sufficient to confer sustained life-long immunity against the disease.
Egypt ranks 87 out of 195 within the 2019 Global Health Security Index, a project of the Nuclear Threat Initiative (NTI) and the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security (JHU), developed with The Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU).
Egypt's climate is Mediterranean along the Alexandria coast, semi-arid around Cairo, and fully arid in the south. The ideal time to visit the country is in the autumn (from late September until late November) when temperatures start to cool in Europe and Egypt is still bathed in a mild heat (temperatures fluctuate between 25°C and 35°C from north to south). Winters (mid-December through February) are better for those who dislike temperatures over 30°C but tend to be cloudy. During this season, it is best to pack a good jacket if traveling to Cairo as there is very little indoor heating in Egypt. Spring (March-April) comes relatively late and passes quickly; it is also the windy season when the Khamsin (a hot and sandy wind) passes over the country two or three times. Summer is often scorching; you will have to adapt as the locals do, beginning your day early in the morning and taking a long break at midday.
Across the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region, droughts, earthquakes, water scarcity, and heat waves continue to hamper development efforts and adversely impact livelihoods and economies. Weather extremes, such as torrential rains and floods, affect tens of thousands each year—with many events occurring in contexts of fragility arising from conflicts. Disaster recovery efforts have been underway in such countries, presenting more complex challenges and a need for coordinated efforts among additional development partners. Disaster risk reduction in urban areas remains a priority in this heavily urbanized region where many cities are significantly exposed to natural hazards......







