Norway
Norway
385.207 km2, 5,391 mill. hab. (Census 2021)
Capital: Oslo
Euro
Last Update: June 2021
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Norway is politically and economically stable, and provides a favourable environment for businesses. Norway is a hereditary constitutional monarchy based on parliamentary democratic rule. Currently, the Prime Minister is Erna Solberg from the centre-right Conservative Party (H), which rules in coalition with the centrist Liberal Party (V) and the Christian Democratic Party (KrF). The next parliamentary elections are due in 2021. The departure of the right-wing Progressive Party (FrP) from the ruling coalition in January 2020 deprived the government of its parliamentary majority. Minority governments are common in Norway and such formation is unlikely to affect its ability to function. Prime Minister Erna Solberg and the government now enjoy higher public support owing to the perceived effective response to the coronavirus (COVID-19) outbreak, mitigating instability risks. FrP is likely to support the government from the opposition, which means that government stability is unlikely to be compromised until the next elections. While in coalition, FrP complained of having too little influence on policy direction. The immigration issue has been the main point of contention between the government and FrP since the latter’s departure. However, it has not prevented FrP’s support on other issues, especially policy response to the pandemic.
The Norwegian economy is highly diversified, although the oil and gas industry accounts for 20% of its GDP. The mainland economy has been under greater pressure during 2020. Enforced social distancing measures and a national lockdown to halt the spread of COVID-19 have affected consumer-facing services and non-essential retail spending. An additional drag also results from acute income losses for firms and households as a result of historically low global crude-oil prices, which will also hit offshore investment. However, Norway has a substantial fiscal surplus to mitigate some of the damage. In this way, even though many pointed to Norway as the big loser, it seems that the Norwegian economy is among those that have fared best. According to the IMF, the real GDP of Norways contracted by just 0.8% in 2020. Moreover, as the economy continues to recover and unemployment rates continue to gradually decline, the IMF expects Norway to grow by 3.9% in 2021.
In response to the COVID-19 crisis, Solberg announced several national-level restrictions to control the spread of the virus. These have been slightly eased since early October but operational disruptions are likely to persist, given the uncertainty of the current global pandemic. According to the IHME COVID-19 data projection, Norway is in the middle of a decreasing trend in the number of infections, and another peak is unlikely. The operational risk rating for Norway will remain low, as opposed to very low, to reflect these challenges.
Overall, the tradition of coalition rule has fostered a political climate based on consensus and there is broad agreement among the main parties and the public on the country’s democratic, Western and market orientation. The public administration is generally efficient, and infrastructure is well-developed and reliable. The country is regularly rated as one of the best locations for doing business worldwide. Regarding the security environment, it is classified as benign, with petty street crime posing the main security threat, albeit a minor one. The country is a potential target for Islamist extremist terrorism, but has a lower profile among extremist groups than larger and more high-profile Western European countries. Right-wing extremists are active but relatively weak. However, the threat from right-wing extremists has again become a growing concern for authorities following an attack on a mosque by a lone extremist in August 2019.
Norway is politically stable. The country has strong and well-rooted democratic institutions. There is a broad consensus on democratic and market principles among political parties and the wider public. A tradition of consensual politics and a constitutional ban on early elections reduces the risk of serious government instability. The country is firmly anchored in NATO and enjoys strong relations with other European countries through its membership in the European Economic Area (EEA).
Focusing on Norwegian politics, the right-wing government (2013-) has accelerated prospecting in the far north, including the Barents Sea and the North Sea. This is strongly opposed by local and international environmentalist organizations. Despite the likely continuation of government support for Arctic exploration, commercial operators in the Arctic region are likely to remain exposed to reputational and operational challenges from environmentalist groups. In 2019, plans to significantly expand onshore wind power triggered opposition from local communities and environmentalist groups, including protests at project sites disrupting operations. The government subsequently shelved the plans.
A particularly interesting feature of the Norwegian economy is the Government Pension Fund Global or Norway’s oil fund, which was created after the discovery of oil in the North Sea. The fund was set up to shield the economy from ups and downs in oil revenue. It also serves as a financial reserve and as a long-term savings plan so that both current and future generations benefit from the country's oil wealth. The fund is now one of the world’s largest funds, owning almost 1.5 percent of all shares in the world’s listed companies, with holdings in around 9,000 companies worldwide. It also owns hundreds of buildings in some of the world’s leading cities and makes profits from lending to countries and companies. There is a broad political consensus on how the fund should be managed. Each year, the Norwegian government can spend only a small part of the fund (which still amounts to almost 20% of the government budget) and only the return on the fund is spent, not the fund’s capital. Currently, the fund is worth around 300% of mainland GDP.
Regarding international politics, two main issues must be highlighted: EU membership as well as Russia's and China's strategic interests in Norway. Even though Norway remains outside the EU, it is closely linked to the bloc via membership of the European Economic Area (EEA). Public opposition to EU membership remains strong, reflecting concerns about the impact on agriculture and fisheries, despite political support for eventual EU membership from the main political parties. Membership is unlikely to be a credible prospect in the coming years. In addition, security and defence agencies have increasingly voiced concerns about the actions of Russia and China in Norway. Potential threats to Norway include espionage, disinformation, and influence campaigns, as well as growing military activity by China and Russia in the Arctic. While Russia continues to be seen as the main threat actor, Chinese activities concerning critical infrastructure and strategic investment are increasingly becoming a geopolitical concern for political and intelligence bodies.
Norway is considered a Full Democracy in the 2020 Democracy Index, developed by The Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU), where the country ranks 1 out of 167 countries scored.
The country also ranks 1st at the Human Development Index developed by the United Nations Development Programme.
The operational environment is benign. Business infrastructure including transport and telecommunications is well-developed and reliable. The state administration is extensive but largely efficient, and the judiciary is independent and well equipped to deal with commercial cases. Labour and skills shortages can present a problem and labour unions are strong, but the threat of sustained strike action against companies is low. The country is regularly rated as one of the best locations for doing business worldwide.
Norway welcomes foreign investment, especially in the northern regions, the petroleum sector, and mainland industry. Some sectors have restrictions for activities and ownership, including maritime transport, fishing, and agriculture. Although unit labour costs are relatively high compared with OECD peers, the workforce is highly skilled and educated. Unionisation levels are high, but strikes primarily occur in connection with regular, biannual collective wage negotiations, and are well regulated. Moreover, the government retains the right to force a settlement if a dispute threatens national security or strategic sectors such as the oil and gas sector. Petty bribery is virtually non-existent. Corruption is most likely to manifest itself in conflict-of-interest issues.
Environmentalists are active and mount demonstrations against projects that they perceive to be harmful to the environment. Companies involved in offshore drilling and extractives remain the primary target of environmentalists, though groups have also targeted bioresearch firms, the fur industry and nuclear suppliers, and more recently onshore wind projects. Such groups pose potential reputational and operational threats to multinationals in these sectors. Most demonstrations take place at the site of business operations, including on offshore sites. In the first stages, protests are likely to involve banners and picketing. More extreme direct action tactics, such as sabotage and the occupation of equipment, are unlikely in the early stages of a campaign against a company or industry sector.
Restrictions imposed in response to the global coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic are likely to cause significant operational disruption in the coming months. Although the government on 11 May 2020 began its lockdown-easing plan, certain measures remain in place. Given the uncertainity arround the current situation, businesses will likely need to comply with renewed restrictions at short notice.
Regarding transportation, the Norwegian motorway network is in good condition. However, travel can be disrupted due to weather conditions. Some roads can be closed during the winter due to hazardous conditions; mountain roads, particularly those that are narrow and winding, are very dangerous. Vehicles are required to be fitted with snow tires from November 1 until April 15. Trains mostly serve major cities and can be slow in some areas. When train services are disrupted, rail replacement bus services are provided. In addition, sea and air transportation - more than 50 airports are spread across the country- is very well developed in Norway. Since 2015, identity controls have been reinstated at harbors for departures and arrivals to and from Denmark and Germany.
Overall, Norway ranks 9 out of 190 countries scored at the 2020 Doing Business Index by the World Bank and 7 out of 198 at the 2020 Corruption Perception Index by the Transparency International Organization.
Businesses in Norway face few serious security threats. Petty crime poses the most credible security threat, especially in the capital Oslo, but remains a minor concern. The country is a member of NATO and enjoys a high degree of regional security, despite occasional bilateral tensions with neighbouring Russia. Islamist extremist terrorism is the most serious terrorism threat, but no mass-casualty attack motivated by Islamist extremism has occurred in Norway and it is a lower priority target than more high-profile Western European countries. A far-right attack in 2011 is the most significant terrorist attack in recent times, and authorities have warned of the rising threat of right-wing extremism following an attack on a mosque near Oslo in August 2019. Civil unrest is very rare and likely to be confined to small-scale confrontations on the fringes of larger public protests.
Although still limited in scope, organized criminal activity has grown in recent years in Norway, fuelled by the internationalization of such activity across Europe. The National Criminal Investigation Service has identified the construction, hotel and restaurant, transport, cleaning, and agricultural sectors, as well as the retail sector, as those that are most prone to labor-market criminality. These include tax fraud, exploitation of illegal workers, money laundering, and violence. The risk of violence by criminal networks is the highest in the capital, Oslo, but targeted attacks are likely to be limited to rival gangs and networks.
Protests against dismissals caused by falling commodity prices or the government's labor market policies are likely to be peaceful. Domestic and international environmentalist groups are active and well equipped to stage disruptive campaigns, and are most likely to target the oil and gas sector, whaling industry, hydropower sector, and wind farms. These protests will primarily occur through peaceful information campaigns, demonstrations, and marches rather than violence, designed to raise publicity. The environmentalist groups pose a low direct security threat to personnel or assets. Risks of demonstrations have been lowered by the restrictions on public gatherings in response to the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) virus pandemic. Positive public perception of the government’s response to the pandemic mitigates the risk of anti-government protests.
Norway's participation in the NATO operation in Afghanistan and three Norwegian newspapers' publication of the Prophet Muhammad cartoons in 2005–06 has made Norway a symbolical target for jihadist militants. The primary risk stems from firearm attacks by self-radicalized individuals, including dozens of potential returnees who have fought with jihadists in Syria and Iraq, against soft targets similar to those seen in Belgium, Denmark, and France in 2014–15. Terrorist attacks by far-right extremists are rare, despite the July 2011 IED and firearm attacks by an individual attacker against a government building and a Labour Party youth camp, and the attempted attack on a mosque in 2019.
Norway is very unlikely to become involved in an interstate conflict affecting its territory. The country's membership in NATO and shared border with Russia in the north will make it vulnerable in the unlikely event of a NATO-Russia conflict. However, this is unlikely to occur despite the deterioration of relations between Western Europe and Russia. Any conflict within Norwegian-controlled areas would likely be offshore in the high north and as part of a potential (but unlikely) NATO-Russia conflict in the Arctic.
Overall, Norway ranks 17 out of 163 within the 2020 Global Peace Index by the Institute for Economics and Peace.
Norway is not currently among the most cyber-attacked countries in the world, it is ranked as the 116th most-attacked country according to Kaspersky cyber threat map.
No vaccinations are required to enter the country.
Seek local advice if you intend to eat mussels harvested off the coast and certain types of fish from lakes and fjords.
Norway ranks 16 out of 195 within the 2019 Global Health Security Index, a project of the Nuclear Threat Initiative (NTI) and the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security (JHU), developed with The Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU).
Norway's climate is characterized by considerable fluctuations in weather patterns from one year to another, particularly in the country's most northerly regions. The average annual temperature ranges from 8°C along the western coast to below freezing in mountainous areas. The two coldest months are January and February. Precipitation is relatively constant throughout the year, with snow common in the winter, particularly in inland regions.
Weather can change very rapidly, especially in northern areas. It is possible to experience arctic weather in the middle of summer. Flooding is common in Norway, especially during spring; landslides often accompany the floods. In the North of the Arctic Circle, the sun does not rise at all from mid-November to the end of January. Snowstorms or blizzards are common during wintertime and can lead to electricity outages and transportation disruptions.
Hikers should be conscious of the dangers inherent to mountainous and polar regions. All hikers should be well-equipped and properly trained before any excursion. It is advisable to hire a professional guide if hiking on glaciers. It is advised against going alone. In case of a trip to Svalbard, and the archipelagos between Norway and the Northern Pole, it is crucial to prepare meticulously for the trip by reading up on current laws and following local authorities' advice regarding polar bears attacks and avalanches.
If you plan to visit Norway, stay informed by the Norwegian Directorate for Civil Protection (DSB).







